Higgins By-election 2009
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Australian Democrats vote almost doubles
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Thursday, December
10, 2009
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The Australian Democrats almost doubled
their percentage of first
preference votes compared with the Higgins result in the 2007 general
election.
The low voter turn-out on December 5 of 63,204 (71.70%) compared with
83,778 (93.77%) in 2007 had little effect on the Liberal's win in
percentage terms.
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Australian Democrats Higgins candidate, David Collyer.
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Neither did Labor's decision not to contest the
seat;
it appears that most Labor voters simply switched their vote to the
Greens.
About 20,574 eligible voters stayed home and it can be seen that these
were mostly traditional Liberal and Labor voters. At 43,761 in 2007 but
only 32,776 in 2009 the Liberal vote was down by 10,985. Labor's vote
in 2007 was 25,367.
So who did those 10,985 Liberal voters plus 25,367 Labor voters - a
total of 36,352 Higginsians - vote for?
As already mentioned, 20,574 stayed home. That left 15,778 votes
looking for somewhere to go.
Enter the Greens. Their vote in 2007 was 8,777 and in 2009 it was
20,167, an increase of 11,390. Most of that increase can only have come
from the 15,778 Liberal/Labor voters above.
This shows that Liberal and Labor voters stayed home in roughly equal
numbers and the Greens' increase came almost entirely from Labor voters
with no Labor candidate to vote for - unless Liberals turned Green in
large numbers. Unlikely.
With Labor out of the race, the media and therefore the public saw
Higgins as a two-way contest. For 87% of Higgins voters there were only two viable options: Liberal and Greens. The percentage available to other candidates
including Australian Democrats', David Collyer, barely changed from 2007.
It's now clear that those homeless Labor votes were always destined for
the Greens. But they're only visiting briefly; most will fly home when
Labor contests the seat in 2010.
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