Buy back the grid.

Victoria still gets about half its electricity from three ageing coal power stations in the Latrobe Valley: Yallourn, Loy Yang A and Loy Yang B.

Those coal stations are reaching the end of their working lives. [1][2] Yallourn is due to close in 2028, Loy Yang A in 2035 and Loy Yang B later. AEMO’s Step Change forecast shows all Victorian coal closing by around 2036.[3] Victoria needs replacement power built on time, not wished into existence at the last minute.

If new generation, storage and transmission are not ready when coal closes, Victorians face higher bills, supply shortages and a greater risk of blackouts.

The health[4] and environmental[5] impacts of burning coal or coal power generation mean that building new coal plants to replace those that are closing is not a compelling solution for societies seeking a continuous and sustainable future for the earth's habitation. Victoria should focus on affordable, emissions-free power, backed by the firm capacity needed to keep the lights on. Cost-effective, emissions-free alternatives include renewable technologies such as solar and wind, as well as nuclear power.

The current state plan relies heavily on new wind and solar projects in regional renewable energy zones, with new transmission lines to move that power to Melbourne and other major centres.

Other emissions-free options, including nuclear[6][7], should be assessed honestly on cost, timing, reliability, safety, waste and community acceptance.[8] Whatever mix Victoria chooses, the grid must be planned around it.

That is why transmission ownership matters. AusNet, Victoria’s transmission monopoly, is privately owned by Brookfield, a Canadian-headquartered global asset manager, having been sold by the state in 1997. Private ownership may have worked when the grid was stable, and demand was flat. It is not fit for a once-in-a-generation rebuild of the power system.[9] Under the regulated private ownership model, AusNet operates to maximise profits, considering community consultation and landowner compensation only to the extent required by the regulations.

“While re-nationalisation of these assets entails a one-off cost... public ownership is an investment well worth making… [It would] allow for direct investment divorced from the profit imperative, while also maximising the power of the state’s risk-bearing capacity, planning functionality and structurally lower cost of capital to coherently plan and rapidly deliver a renewable-ready grid at lower cost to the public.” – Common Wealth (think tank), 2023 [10]

The 2022 state election promise to revive the State Electricity Commission (SEC) was popular because it sounded like Victoria was taking back control. But the SEC still lacks a clear strategy. Meanwhile, regional communities are being asked to host new transmission and renewable energy projects without seeing sufficient direct benefits. Planning for proposed projects like VNI West has been caught up in bureaucratic planning processes for years. With AusNet in private hands and multiple government agencies involved in approval processes, there is limited clarity around who is responsible for decision-making. The quagmire has exacerbated community concerns, as there is often no one to direct their feedback to.

Offshore wind also looks increasingly uncertain.[11][12] Major developers have stepped back from Bass Strait projects, citing difficult economics, and CSIRO analysis shows offshore wind is roughly twice as expensive as onshore wind. [13] With the state budget under pressure, Victoria needs a plan that is practical, affordable and honest about trade-offs.

Victoria needs a clear, evidence-based transition plan that compares all credible clean energy options and puts households, businesses and regional communities first.